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Post by mmmbeer on Aug 19, 2016 6:56:38 GMT -5
42 games left. If they play .500, they will finish with 88 wins. I think .500 is likely with O'Day's injuries and Brach's ineffectiveness, not to mention that's the pace since the break. Is 88 enough to grab a wild card?
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Post by Evil Yoda on Aug 19, 2016 10:28:43 GMT -5
They can probably manage .500. But there is a great deal of uncertainty:
1. Did Bundy have one off game, or is he nearing arm exhaustion for the year? 2. Has Gausman turned the corner and learned how to pitch, as his last start suggests, or was that start an outlier? 3. Are the bats, which have been comatose since the All-Star break, finally waking up?
If everyone plays to his potential they could even win the division. But if we get more of what we've gotten recently, where hitters are off more than they're on, and pitchers are inconsistent, I doubt they'll earn a wild card berth. If we don't see things come together in the next week or so, they'd done. They were really starting to look like the pre-Buck Orioles, who tended to end their season in mid August or early September.
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Post by mmmbeer on Aug 19, 2016 13:12:44 GMT -5
pfff. pre-buck/mcphail the season was usually over in June. July at the latest.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2016 22:48:08 GMT -5
The American League East is a contest of three flawed teams with the Orioles' weaknesses being exposed more than the other two at the moment. Despite the shellacking tonight, it is a good sign to see the offense beginning to show life after a six-week hiatus.
The 2012 Orioles, who took the second wildcard spot, finished with 93 wins. I figure either Toronto or Boston for one of the spots with the other coming down to the Orioles, Mariners and Tigers. I think it would behoove the Orioles to win at least 90. Of course, it would really behoove the Orioles to just win the AL East and not have to deal with a one-game playoff. You can't be eliminated while you're waiting.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Aug 20, 2016 21:05:45 GMT -5
If Tillman and Bundy both have velocity problems, whatever the cause, the rest of the season is going to be unpleasant to watch. And they will be done in early September.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2016 23:10:20 GMT -5
If Tillman and Bundy both have velocity problems, whatever the cause, the rest of the season is going to be unpleasant to watch. And they will be done in early September. Every pitcher loses velocity as the season wears on, be it due to lost body weight (you sweat off a lot of pounds in the heat of the summer), strength loss, fatigue, excessive workload, and yes, injuries. I'm hoping Tillman's disaster tonight was due to too much rest; when a pitcher is too strong, he tends to be wild. If he makes his next start in turn, that will be more of a litmus test. If he has to be put on the shelf for any period of time, then that spells big trouble. I think too much is being made of Bundy's slight dip in velocity over the past few games. It isn't as if he was blowing hitters away with a 100 mph fastball: he was hitting 96 or so maximum. What made Bundy almost unhittable was do to what's known as effective velocity. Essentially what this means is that Bundy has a fastball which appears very fast to a hitter. His delivery is very deceptive, he was hitting his spots, and his release point was shaving milliseconds off the time hitters had to react to it. A good example of the above was Max Scherzer, then still pitching with Detroit. His velocity in 2014 dropped off by 1.5 mph, yet he still managed a career-high 252 strikeouts that year. Rick Porcello was a very expensive, physical and psychological wreck heading into this season. He got torched in spring training with a fastball that rarely touched 90 mph, yet he's now tied for the AL lead in wins with 17. One of his problems was that he was over-throwing, and when a pitcher does that, he's not compact anymore in his delivery and winds up pitching even less hard than if he used his natural windup. That might be the case with Bundy a bit as well; it isn't uncommon for a young pitcher to try and reach back for something extra. The pitching needs to get straightened out regardless. The Orioles still have a number of games left with Boston and Toronto and they can't expect to beat those teams if their starters can't survive the second inning.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Aug 21, 2016 19:03:57 GMT -5
I worry about Bundy because of the difficulties, by which I mean injuries, on his path to the bigs. The chant was that he would be innings limited this year, but since they have no one else it appears they have discarded that plan (if it ever was a plan) in favor of "win now, worry about the future when it gets here". Maybe he's past getting hurt. I suppose time will tell.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2016 22:55:22 GMT -5
The Orioles need to turn this thing around now if they want to be playing baseball in October. Not only do they have Toronto and Boston ahead of them currently, but both Kansas City and Seattle are red-hot and breathing down their necks for the second wildcard berth. The Yankees are not out of it by any means, either.
It's as if Someone Up There blew a whistle right after the All-Star Break.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Aug 22, 2016 16:14:01 GMT -5
This isn't the first time they've struggled after the All-Star Break. Frankly, in the era of nightly interleague play that game has lost much of its relevance, and I'd just as soon they end it. Plus, in the era of Internet television you can see NL games if you live in an AL city, or vice versa, whenever you want. Not like when I was growing up, where you'd only see the NL during the post season.
They could scatter three more days off in the back half of the season when guys need them.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2016 0:14:58 GMT -5
This isn't the first time they've struggled after the All-Star Break. Frankly, in the era of nightly interleague play that game has lost much of its relevance, and I'd just as soon they end it. Plus, in the era of Internet television you can see NL games if you live in an AL city, or vice versa, whenever you want. Not like when I was growing up, where you'd only see the NL during the post season. They could scatter three more days off in the back half of the season when guys need them. You've pretty much summed up my feelings regarding the All-Star Game as well. Mass media has largely curtailed whatever attraction the game may have had at one time. I used to look forward to it as a kid since that was one of the few opportunities to see the National League stars. Now through the various viewing packages, it's possible to follow any team up close and personal for the entire season.
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Post by mmmbeer on Sept 19, 2016 9:15:55 GMT -5
13 games left. Toronto, Detroit, & Seattle all chasing. 6 wins makes it unlikely Detroit or Seattle can pass them. Hang on...
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Post by Evil Yoda on Sept 21, 2016 12:12:24 GMT -5
If they do manage the post-season as a wild card (winning the division is impossible, for practical purposes), they won't last. When they hit, they couldn't pitch. When the pitching finally came around, the hitters went on vacation.
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Post by bobloblaw on Sept 21, 2016 16:58:22 GMT -5
I'm surprised at the number of empty seats there were during the game last night.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Sept 21, 2016 18:46:03 GMT -5
I'm surprised at the number of empty seats there were during the game last night. So are the Orioles. Which kind of amazes me. When teams do badly, attendance drops. The fact that Buck improved the team boosted attendance for a long time, but right now people realize they're going to miss the post season (probably), so their attention has faded. Plus, for fifteen years Angelos put a bad product on the field. He trained fans to believe that he's a bad owner, and it will take a long period demonstrating a solid commitment to winning to train them back. Probably longer than he has, given his age and the fact that it is much easier to lose a customer than to capture one.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Sept 21, 2016 20:17:42 GMT -5
They are playing some truly bad baseball against the Red Sox. It just wasn't their year. Again.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2016 22:48:16 GMT -5
The Orioles still control their own fate, but the way they're playing right now, you almost get the feeling that even if they do make the postseason, they don't exactly deserve it. The fact that they're laying a big, fat ostrich egg in the biggest series of the season thus far makes it even more frustrating.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Sept 22, 2016 13:51:45 GMT -5
The Orioles still control their own fate, but the way they're playing right now, you almost get the feeling that even if they do make the postseason, they don't exactly deserve it. The fact that they're laying a big, fat ostrich egg in the biggest series of the season thus far makes it even more frustrating. Watching them play the last few weeks, one gets a sense they are just playing out the string and waiting for their October golf dates. You don't get the sense of a team that thinks it can contend. I begin to wonder if Buck's ability to motivate, surely his finest skill, is fading. Eventually even the best managers and coaches overstay their welcome. I don't think he's in danger of being fired this year, but I think his effectiveness is waning. Next year they won't have Trumbo and probably not Bundy (someone with offer them big bucks and/or long contracts, which they'd be foolish not to take). But they can probably overpay Weiters again, and they'll be overpaying Davis for a good number of years. I think the club needs a makeover, the kind that only happens when the owner dies or sells. Winning doesn't matter to Angelos; his actions over the years have made that clear. And that's going to flow downhill.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Sept 22, 2016 21:29:14 GMT -5
The Red Sox got out the broom. If Adam Jones still can't understand why fans aren't in the stands, I'm going to have to revise my estimate of his IQ sharply downward.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2016 22:39:09 GMT -5
The Orioles still control their own fate, but the way they're playing right now, you almost get the feeling that even if they do make the postseason, they don't exactly deserve it. The fact that they're laying a big, fat ostrich egg in the biggest series of the season thus far makes it even more frustrating. Watching them play the last few weeks, one gets a sense they are just playing out the string and waiting for their October golf dates. You don't get the sense of a team that thinks it can contend. I begin to wonder if Buck's ability to motivate, surely his finest skill, is fading. Eventually even the best managers and coaches overstay their welcome. I don't think he's in danger of being fired this year, but I think his effectiveness is waning. Next year they won't have Trumbo and probably not Bundy (someone with offer them big bucks and/or long contracts, which they'd be foolish not to take). But they can probably overpay Weiters again, and they'll be overpaying Davis for a good number of years. I think the club needs a makeover, the kind that only happens when the owner dies or sells. Winning doesn't matter to Angelos; his actions over the years have made that clear. And that's going to flow downhill. This is Bundy's first full season in the majors; he won't even be arbitration-eligible for another two years.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Sept 23, 2016 10:59:25 GMT -5
This is Bundy's first full season in the majors; he won't even be arbitration-eligible for another two years. Really? I read he was signed to a major league contract when drafted - one of the last draftees signed that way before they changed the rules with the last CBA - and because of his long development due to injuries, he was a free agent when he finally came up. COTS says he was initially signed from 11-15, and signed a one year contract for 1.8M. Spotrac agrees. This at least implies he will be a free agent. His "presence", by which I mean his ability to pitch, not just throw, his repertoire and his command will drive his price up. His injury history and the fact that he pitched an incomplete season and still faded will drive his price down. And there may be some loyalty to the organization that developed him. But if he is a free agent there will certainly be interest.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2016 23:53:18 GMT -5
This is Bundy's first full season in the majors; he won't even be arbitration-eligible for another two years. Really? I read he was signed to a major league contract when drafted - one of the last draftees signed that way before they changed the rules with the last CBA - and because of his long development due to injuries, he was a free agent when he finally came up. COTS says he was initially signed from 11-15, and signed a one year contract for 1.8M. Spotrac agrees. This at least implies he will be a free agent. His "presence", by which I mean his ability to pitch, not just throw, his repertoire and his command will drive his price up. His injury history and the fact that he pitched an incomplete season and still faded will drive his price down. And there may be some loyalty to the organization that developed him. But if he is a free agent there will certainly be interest. Bundy was signed to a major league contract, but that meant he was immediately placed on the 40-man roster. The advantage of such a deal for the player is that he cannot earn less than 80 percent of his salary from the previous year, and he can be optioned to the minors for only the first three years of the contract. That was the reason Bundy had to start this season on the 25-man roster; he could not be optioned to the minors without having to pass through waivers. Service time only pertains to the time a player spends on the 25-man roster. Said time is considered to be 172 days out of a major league season which typically lasts 183 days. Players therefore need full seasons to count toward free agency, which is why there was a minor flap last season when the Cubs optioned Kris Bryant to the majors just before the beginning of the season. By delaying his major league service time by a couple of weeks, they were therefore able to buy a full year of Bryant's team-controlled contract to 2021 rather than 2020. Before this season, Bundy had accrued just 0.26 years of major league service time. He has a long way to go.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Sept 24, 2016 16:21:09 GMT -5
Thanks, that's helpful information.
I remember how the Cubs treated Bryant. That's the kind of thing that, for me, would cause me to instruct my agent to consider the other 29 teams when the time came.
It may be legally and contractually possible to mistreat people, but that does not mean it is a good idea. Angelos treating Duquette's departure like a lawyer instead of an HR person is another example - you never want someone working for you who does not want to be there. It will bite you sooner or later.
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Post by mmmbeer on Sept 26, 2016 6:34:14 GMT -5
1.5 games up on Detroit with 6 games left. The Os need to split those to get to 88 wins. That will be a tough number for Det & Sea. I would be more comfortable if they didn't have to finish up in Tor and NY.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2016 23:55:32 GMT -5
1.5 games up on Detroit with 6 games left. The Os need to split those to get to 88 wins. That will be a tough number for Det & Sea. I would be more comfortable if they didn't have to finish up in Tor and NY. Both Toronto and Detroit lost on Monday night, so it turned out to be a profitable off day for the Orioles. I agree with your 88 wins assessment; I think that number will at least get them in.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Sept 27, 2016 11:36:25 GMT -5
Even if they get in, how far will they get? The knockout game would take luck. Actually winning against a good team... for them, now, impossible. Duquette built a horrible unbalanced team, all sluggers. He overpaid like crazy for Davis (which, rumor has it, wasn't his decision). He needs to do a much better job in this off-season, and I don't know if he can. Or wants to. He hasn't really done well since Angelos blocked his move to Toronto, a boneheaded move perhaps matched by the Davis deal. The mesothelioma midget is one of those men who does not understand his limitations. He's doubtless a fine lawyer and he might even be a nice human being - never having met him, I don't know. But he is a terrible owner.
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