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Post by Ravenchamp on Jul 26, 2016 10:48:23 GMT -5
Just feeling it .
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Post by Evil Yoda on Jul 26, 2016 15:46:17 GMT -5
It's a little early to say that with certainty. A serious injury to Tillman or Gausman imperils that, for example. They're playing way above early prediction, but they haven't much depth.
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Post by mmmbeer on Jul 27, 2016 15:10:04 GMT -5
The force does seem to be strong with them this year. I can't see them winning the division with Bundy & Worley as the #4 and #5.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Jul 27, 2016 16:38:59 GMT -5
My guess is that once they reach the post season, and play only capable teams, their lack of quality starters will sink them.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2016 23:22:50 GMT -5
My guess is that once they reach the post season, and play only capable teams, their lack of quality starters will sink them. Once you get to the postseason, everything shortens up and you get can by with two or three decent starters. Kansas City won the Series last year with a starting rotation that ranked 12th in the American League in ERA, but they also had timely hitting and a lights-out bullpen. That was enough. There is scarcely a contending team out there right now that doesn't have serious flaws. Both Boston and Toronto have shaky bullpens, and Boston's starting staff doesn't rate much higher than the Orioles right now (21st vs. 25th in ERA). Texas's starting pitching has been riddled with injuries, and just down I-95 in the National League, Jonathan Papelbon is single-handedly blowing up Washington's season. If the Nats can't fix their bullpen woes, they can forget it. The Cubs improved their bullpen considerably by adding Aroldis Chapman, and they had to pay a steep price to do so, but like the Orioles. their all-or-nothing offense is prone to dry spells and lots of Ks. The Dodgers took a huge hit when they lost Clayton Kershaw (not their fault), but they're also one of the few teams who could likely go all-in for the White Sox's Chris Sale, who looks likely to be moved at some point. Since they're only 2.5 games behind the slumping Giants right now, it might be in their interests to at least try. And speaking of the Giants, they also are in dire need of help, as evidenced by their sit-up-and-take-notice 18 blown saves thus far this season. The trouble facing both they and Washington is, with Chapman gone to the Cubs, that lock-down closer probably doesn't exist, at least not via the trade route. Anything can happen in the playoffs. Just ask the 100-win Cardinals from last season, who appeared to be a lock for the Series, yet failed to get out of the division round. |
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Post by Evil Yoda on Jul 28, 2016 9:48:24 GMT -5
I agree with you, but remain concerned about the depth. If a starter goes down for any length of time, or even just loses his groove, they're in trouble. Their bullpen has been carrying a heavy load, as it has typically done because they haven't had really good starting in years. But can it do that a whole season? We know from watching the Orioles beat the Tigers a few years ago that a bad bullpen sinks you. There's no one in the minors even close to ready because they're so bad at training pitchers.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2016 23:56:40 GMT -5
I agree with you, but remain concerned about the depth. If a starter goes down for any length of time, or even just loses his groove, they're in trouble. Their bullpen has been carrying a heavy load, as it has typically done because they haven't had really good starting in years. But can it do that a whole season? We know from watching the Orioles beat the Tigers a few years ago that a bad bullpen sinks you. There's no one in the minors even close to ready because they're so bad at training pitchers. The same could be said for virtually any other contender at this point, and virtually every one of them is looking to add pitching depth. I think that's why we've seen so few deals closed up to this point. There are more buyers than sellers and the price is very, very high. The Orioles have been linked to Andrew Cashner of San Diego since before the season started, but with an ERA approaching 5.00 while pitching in the AL West, is he really an upgrade over what they already have? The Melvin Upton, Ubaldo deal would have added another bat, but not at the cost of two more pitching prospects. The Orioles have also been linked to Jeremy Hellickson of the Phillies--as have numerous other teams--but the asking price is said to be a 1-to-5 rated prospect. That's quite a bit for a guy who, while pitching much better of late, is still a two-month rental and is no one's idea of an ace. If deals are going to get done (and I'd guess things will thaw a bit as the deadline looms), then sellers may need to stop using the Chapman and Pomerantz deals as the market standard and lower their expectations a bit. Just as it's not good for a contender to miss out on a guy who could have helped, it's infinitely worse for a non-contender to not make a deal and get nothing in return for their expiring contracts. I've said this before, but I'd prefer to see the Orioles add some relief help and skip the starters altogether. Guys like Will Smith, Fernando Abad, Boone Logan, Zach Duke and Jake McGee are all potential left handed trade options at this point, and I'd suspect that teams would be a bit more realistic in their trade demands given the almost frantic push for starters. And despite the success of the Orioles' Big Three--Brach, O'Day and Britton--another reliable arm in the bullpen certainly couldn't hurt. Brach has been off a bit lately, while O'Day is 34 and coming off a hamstring injury. Showalter does a good job of managing the bullpen, and keeping those guys fresh down the stretch is just as important as adding another starter. |
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Post by Evil Yoda on Jul 29, 2016 11:55:25 GMT -5
I would agree with you that relief help is probably a better choice at this time. They have too few prospects to squander them on rental contracts. If they go for a reliever who can pitch 3-4 innings that could help some of the less capable starters.
Their other problem is streaky hitters. If they go cold in the post season, you lose. And this team is all streaky hitters. Plus, it appears to be somewhat contagious. Early in the year they showed better plate discipline than I'd seen in previous seasons, but more recently some of them have not been good. Chris Davis is in a signing slump (I've seen too many guys have off years after signing a fat contract, in various sports, to think there's not something to that - perhaps they work a lot harder in the walk year as part of the sell, and then it looks like they're having an off year the next year when really that's closer to what they are when they're not selling). Streaky hitting has cost them wins in some good starts, most recently Bundy and Ubaldo. In the post season, well, we all remember how Kansas City embarrassed them.
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Post by mmmbeer on Aug 10, 2016 6:54:04 GMT -5
Things were looking good until Ravenchamp threw out a jinx.  |
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Post by Evil Yoda on Aug 10, 2016 10:28:30 GMT -5
The problem is that the offense is entirely made of all-or-nothing hitters, supposedly what Buck likes. And right now, Davis and Trumbo are taking an extended post All-Star game break (this is nothing new for Davis, but this year seems worse than in the past). If those guys can't get back on track, they've got serious problems, just when it's starting to look like they've trained a decent pitcher (Bundy). I won't call him an ace, yet. To me, that requires a few years of top drawer performances. But his pitching so far has been more encouraging that Gausman's; Gausman made it to the show faster but seems to have plateaued.
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Post by Ravenchamp on Aug 26, 2016 13:33:34 GMT -5
I hate the all star break, should be abolished. It breaks momentum.
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Post by mmmbeer on Aug 27, 2016 15:58:13 GMT -5
Looks to me like our pitchers have run out of gas. Tilman and ODay hurt. Bundy & Brach hitting the wall. DDs signings -- Wiley, Ubaldo, and Gallardo, are a big pile of poo. Nothing drafted & developed to plug the holes.
I'm afraid they won't be in the playoffs. I hate to be a pessimist, I like to wait & see. But I think the players know it, too. The pitching can't be counted on.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Sept 3, 2016 10:39:10 GMT -5
Pitching has faltered off and on all year, but hitting has, as well. Chris Davis: if he's not hitting a home run, he's not hitting at all. For one example. You get some games like yesterday, but all too often you get games where pitchers get no run support. Almost every pitcher has an ERA north of 3 in the modern era; that means the hitters have got to get them four runs if they expect to win games. And these hitters do not do that often enough.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Sept 28, 2016 20:34:05 GMT -5
Two important contracts and the players involved had off years (Davis, O'Day). As men often do after signing. They play harder to get paid and then relax the following year. Just wasn't their year. Nor, I think, will it be any time soon. The Red Sox went from last place to division winner in a few short years. The Yankees will be dangerous again in another year or two. The O's keep stumbling along, occasionally thrilling but more often disappointing. They had a window, and failed to exploit it. I wonder what the sales are like for those season plans next year that give you a shot at post season tickets?  |
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Post by Ravenchamp on Oct 4, 2016 7:21:01 GMT -5
well I didn't think they would make it this far after falling off the cliff. I'm pleasantly surprised.
Think I'll buy buy my orange and black streamers in case they go deep
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Post by mmmbeer on Oct 4, 2016 8:35:39 GMT -5
Think I'll buy buy my orange and black streamers in case they go deep If the bats get hot, they can go. There's no telling. |
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Post by Ravenchamp on Oct 5, 2016 9:50:59 GMT -5
Oh well next year
The team was suspect anyway , not fully surprised.
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Post by Evil Yoda on Oct 5, 2016 13:13:22 GMT -5
The team was suspect anyway , not fully surprised. You started this thread by saying they'd win the division, and now suddenly you're backtracking by saying they were suspect? |
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Post by Ravenchamp on Oct 5, 2016 23:44:36 GMT -5
After seeing the downfall , things change. I hate the all star game break, its a killer
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