Offseason moves

[Evil Yoda]

The Orioles probably weren't expecting Matt Wieters to accept a qualifying offer. Duquette was greedy for picks he'd only misuse, and now they're overpaying for Wieters. I would be amused to learn Boras outsmarted Duquette by floating rumors Matt wanted to move on, except it will mean another season of bad baseball. Why must the Angelos clan insist on hiring simpletons to run their club?

Plus, it will be the excuse Scroogelos uses to let Davis leave. Neither he nor Chen were returning, anyway, but now Angelos and Duquette and pretend they signed someone. All Duquette has to do now is wait for late winter to pick up a couple of guys from baseball's version of the outlet mall, and he can call his job done.

[Deleted]

The $15.8 million Wieters will receive next season is probably a bit much, but it's only for one season. I've always contended that there's really no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

Wieters accepting the qualifying offer provides no fiscal reason for not bringing Davis back, if that's what the Orioles truly want to do. Wieters will add about $8 million to next year's payroll, but there are also a considerable number of salaries which have now come off. The Orioles may or not re-sign Davis, but the Wieters situation cannot be offered up as an excuse for not doing so.

[Evil Yoda]

I contend that the evidence points to Angelos as an owner who does not care if the team wins or loses. And as one who does not like to spend money. They will tell fans that they got one of the "big four" back and expect that the fans will be satisfied. I like Wieters, but on the "big four" list (including O'Day) he is the most expendable. I agree there's no reason they can't bring Davis back, but if Angelos does not wish to spend the money and does not care about winning, as I believe, it will be a sufficient excuse for them.

What they really need to do, IMO, is somehow sample the fanbase. Because I suspect if they do that they'll see they need to resign Davis if they expect to sell tickets next year. That, Angelos does care about.

[mmmbeer]

I hope they resign Chen, although that seems to be less likely based on the going rate for LH SP. I don't see how they fill the hole he would leave. Not drafting/developing any SP is killing them.

[Evil Yoda]

Chant is the Yankees will make a run at Chen. If he was unhappy with that tactical demotion (a rumor), he's less likely to spurn their offers, which will be for more than the Orioles choose to spend regardless.

Either it is devilishly difficult to develop starting pitching, or the Orioles have a serious problem evaluating talent, drafting wisely, and developing that talent. Or perhaps more than one of those. Considering that Angelos probably stints the farm system of resources like he stints the payroll, I'm guessing development is the problem.

My wishlist was topped by Davis, and that's not going to happen now. Second was probably O'Day, then Chen and finally Wieters. I like him, but at this point he's replaceable, as I wrote.

[Evil Yoda]

Chen being shopped at 4/$80. Zero chance the Orioles pay that. I think it's too much for him, myself.

[mmmbeer]

I don't know the details of his contract. Quite frankly, that stuff bores me.  At face value, that's a long contract for a 30 year old.

It really drives home that to win consistently, unless you have an owner that doesn't mind overspending, drafting & developing is key.  The Os haven't been able to create that infrastructure in their organization.  You can win occasionally with dumpster diving, as DD has proved, but the Os are hamstrung by their inability to develop front of the rotation SP.

[Deleted]

Price's deal is for seven years and $217 million with an opt-out clause after three. He'll get $30 million in each of the first three seasons, and, should he choose not to opt out, $31 million in 2019, and $32 million per annum for 2020 thru 2022. It is currently the richest contract ever for a pitcher, although Zach Greinke figures to top it once the Dodgers and Giants conclude their bidding war.

I'm not surprised at all by Boston signing Price. Dave Dombrowski had been lobbying Boston ownership to let him spend, spend, spend ever since he was hired back in August. He was probably looking for the checkbook before he even had a desk. Typical Dombrowski move, and not unlike his M.O. in Detroit, where he was very generous with Mike Ilitch's money. The Red Sox would be wise to rein him in a bit; otherwise, they're going to resemble Detroit in a few years with an aging and overpriced roster.

Speaking of Detroit, Jordan Zimmerman signed a five-year, $110 million deal with them earlier this week. A pretty handsome arrangement for a guy coming off the worst season of his career.

EY, maybe we should consolidate all baseball offseason activity into one thread.

[Evil Yoda]

I speculate that Boston will have eventual cause to regret this deal unless they also have opt outs, which I doubt. Or unless Price discovers a way to evade detection for banned substances.

[Evil Yoda]

Earlier today came reports O'Day had re-signed for 4/32 or in that vicinity. More recent reports (from O'Day) claim this is still pending a physical, and "Orioles physicals aren't automatic".

[Evil Yoda]

Article

[Evil Yoda]

Now hearing the offer is 4/$31

[Deleted]

Pending a physical (never a formality with the Orioles), O'Day should be a done deal. He was reportedly ready to sign with the Nationals when the Orioles came back with an offer for a fourth year.

Meanwhile, it's being reported that the Orioles have a seven-year/$150 million offer on the table to Chris Davis. They've also been in contact with the agent representing Justin Upton, which could be taken as a subtle reminder to Scott Boras that they're not going to wait forever for his client. Boras is said to be looking for something in the neighborhood of eight years and $200 million. If that's true, the Orioles should take a pass and put that money to better use elsewhere.

[Evil Yoda]

Dec 10, 2015 1:23:48 GMT -5 @mdrunning said:

Meanwhile, it's being reported that the Orioles have a seven-year/$150 million offer on the table to Chris Davis. They've also been in contact with the agent representing Justin Upton, which could be taken as a subtle reminder to Scott Boras that they're not going to wait forever for his client.

Since we know that Angelos, years ago, dawdled on the Jon Miller deal to the point where Miller essentially had to leave or risk being out of work (Angelos wanted less honesty and more of a homer in the booth), we know Angelos is familiar with the kind of tactics, including artificial delays, an agent might use - hoping a team is foolish enough to wait until it has little choice because everyone else is gone, or hoping team officials blink first. But I would have more confidence in his ability to handle this if he'd given me, over the years, even a shred of evidence that winning matters to him. I have seen no evidence of that.

Agents always want more than teams should pay. The problem that has caused ferocious salary escalation is that there are stupid teams (here defined as front office staff and owners) who either don't understand this, or don't care (because they want the shiny), and so they pay it. That feeds on itself, encouraging agents to ask for even more ridiculous salaries. Make no mistake about it: salary caps chiefly benefit owners. But they do also tend to level the talent pool. (Baseball will not have a salary cap for a number unless a lot of things change, so the discussion is academic.) A more level talent pool would certainly tend to make games more interesting, since the abilities of the manager and the front office would become much more important than the size of the owner's wallet and his willingness to open it.

Dec 10, 2015 1:23:48 GMT -5 @mdrunning said:

Boras is said to be looking for something in the neighborhood of eight years and $200 million. If that's true, the Orioles should take a pass and put that money to better use elsewhere.

In the post steroid (we think) era, 7 years for a 29 year old is risky enough. And the money difference is profound. If this is what Boras thinks he can get, and he probably can, somewhere, then thanks for the home runs, CD, and good luck.

[Evil Yoda]

I've merged a number of offseason activity threads into this single thread, since each such thread was generating very few posts.

[Deleted]

Even if the Orioles do manage to re-sign Davis, all they've essentially done is maintain the status quo for a team that finished .500 last season. There are still major upgrades needed, particularly in the corner outfield spots and the starting rotation.

Whether the Orioles offered Davis $150 million, $168 million, or pulled the offer off the table, as has also been rumored, is irrelevant. What does matter is that they've at least demonstrated a willingness to be competitive in order to try and retain a star player. That has to bode well when the time comes to try and keep Machado in the fold.

If Davis leaves at this point, I have no problem with it. If the Orioles were willing to fork over $150 million to keep him, then hopefully that means they're also willing to take that money and use it to improve in other areas. We'll see.

Update: Buster Olney of ESPN, who's usually a reliable source, is reporting that the Orioles have pulled their seven year, $150 million offer off the table.

I think by leaking their offer to the media, the Orioles are in effect saying that they don't believe Davis has any better offers pending. They appear to be trying to call Scott Boras's bluff.

[Evil Yoda]

Unlike in the past when they've made offers that have seemed to be "low ball the player so we can pretend we tried for the fans", I think their offer to Davis is both legitimate and sufficiently generous. If some idiot pays him $200 million, well, you can't always get what you want. But what I do hope is that they're conducting legitimate negotiations with other talents, and that they've given Davis a deadline they'll stick with. Because what they cannot do is improve the team off the scrap heap like they did last year. That's how you get players you end up designating halfway through the campaign, as happened several times in '15. They got lucky in '14, and in '15 Duquette apparently believed he had a magic touch, of which notion baseball reality disabused him. I don't necessarily think he's bad, but he's no genius - somewhere solidly in the middle of the pack seems right.

[Evil Yoda]

O'Day's signing was announced this morning on the radio. He was quoted as saying he is lobbying Chris Davis to return. But he said Davis had to "do what's right for his family". I can't be the only one who's disgusted when professional athletes making hundred of millions claim they need to hold out for that last extra few million a year "for their family". Just say you want the biggest paycheck you can get; it's honest and most folks will understand and accept it. I've changed jobs myself for the same reason.

[Deleted]

According to Dan Connolly of The Sun, the Orioles have signed Korean outfielder to a two-year, $7 million deal.

I admittedly know nothing of this guy, but the scouting report on him is outstanding plate discipline and contact last season; 101 walks with only 61 strikeouts for an OBP of .438. I believe he also hit 28 homers and drove in somewhere in the vicinity of 120 runs.

Time will obviously tell whether or not any of this translates to MLB, but I think it's a good and relatively cheap risk. ESPN projected his Korean stats to the equivalent of a .260 BA, 17 homers and around 65 or 70 RBI next season. That's not Hall of Fame material, but it's a helluva lot better than anything else the Orioles ran out to leftfield last season.

[Evil Yoda]

Now hearing that Boras (?) is shopping Chen for 5/$100. G'bye, Wei-Yin. I like you, but not $20M a year.

[Evil Yoda]

The Orioles are rumored to be interested in Cespedes. I've listed the possible sources of this rumor in order of probability as I see it:

1. Cespedes' agent started the rumors to create a market that does not exist or improve one that does.
2. The Orioles started the rumors to create the impression they're interested in competing (not unprecedented)
...
99. The Orioles actually are interested in competing, and Duquette's going to try something other than dumpster diving.

[Evil Yoda]

Alex Gordon has re-signed with the Royals. Meanwhile, no top pitcher and no hitter (Davis or otherwise). Looks like another dumpster run is in the cards for Dan, or they'll overpay for Davis and not sign any pitchers. I wonder if you added Angelos' and Duquette's IQs together, would it equal Boras?

[Evil Yoda]

Gerardo Parra to the Rockies

A FoxSports source.

[Evil Yoda]

Chen, Miami agree to deal

This one's from ESPN, not the most reliable or accurate source any longer.

[Deleted]

Chen looks like a done deal. Five years, $80 million with a vesting option for a sixth year which could make the total package worth $96 million. The deal also contains an opt-out clause (which are becoming all the rage in MLB) after year two, and does not provide a no-trade clause (something the Fish never offer). If Chen doesn't opt out, look for him to be on the trading block in a couple of years.