The winter meetings have ended, and the Orioles...

[Evil Yoda]

[Deleted]

Winter meetings oftentimes tend to be more about what didn't happen than what did.

The Orioles were said to be close to a deal with free agent closer Grant Balfour earlier in the week, but now those talks have hit a snag since another club has reportedly offered the former Oakland closer a third-year vesting option. Not sure that's a wise thing to do with a 36-year-old. Rumors are also now circulating that whichever team goes to eight years on Shin Shoo Choo will land him. The Rangers are said to currently have a seven-year offer on the table, though for less than the $153 million Jacoby Ellsbury got from the Yankees. Nothing like securing the services of a guy until he's almost 40.

I'd expect that if the Orioles don't sign Balfour (and I don't think it would be a tragedy), they'll go for either Chris Perez or John Axford (bleh!) as rumored. They've also been linked to Nelson Cruz, who could thrive in Camden Yards offensively, but would be a downgrade on the defensive side. Matt Garza might still be a starting pitching option since the market for him doesn't look to have developed as yet, and he doesn't have compensation attached to him.

Whatever signings the Orioles make, however, I doubt if any will result in higher season ticket sales.

[Evil Yoda]

Mr. Angelos' penurious management style has trained fans not to expect much, and in the last few years this has been reflected in attendance. If the club does well I expect that people will return to the park as they did last year - but they're a long way from being retrained to patience in the face of poor performance. A team needs to sell fans its commitment to winning to build audience, and I don't believe Mr. Angelos is committed to winning. I think he's indifferent to it; if it happens, it's great for what it does to ticket sales. But he'll make money even if the club has the worst record in all of baseball, and he knows it. Whatever drives him to win in court does not seem to translate to his baseball team. It might be that compensation fuels his drive; in court, losers don't earn. In sports, they still do.

[Deleted]

Although I'm not defending the Orioles' inactivity, I think there were some mitigating circumstances this offseason that made a lot of teams much more cautious. Namely, league average pitchers such as Scott Feldman (3/$30 million from Houston), Rickey Nolsaco (4/$49 from the Twins), Phil Hughes (3/$24 from the Twins), and Scott Kazmir (2/$22 from Oakland) hitting the mother lode in free agency. If the rising tide does indeed lift all boats, then prices for whoever is left promise to be hyper-inflated.

I would certainly like to see the Orioles become more proactive, but I'd rather they not raise the bar on mediocrity in order to do so.

[Evil Yoda]

I assumed that the end of the steroid era would mean the end of ten year contracts. And then the Mariners signed Cano for stupid money. They will regret that deal, I believe. Like the Yankees do the ARod deal. Let me be clear: I am not saying that Cano uses steroid. I am saying that steroids are why ten year contracts made sense for superstars; they could keep themselves going well into their thirties that way. Cano won't be able to do that even if he wants to. Well, not without getting suspended.

I guess there will always be a few teams stupidly committed to winning: they want to win so bad they'll make dumb deals. I don't want the Orioles to be like those teams. I don't mind them letting Johnson and Feldman and McLouth go to teams willing to overpay them. The Ravens let players go to teams that way every year. But... I feel I can count on Ozzie and the Ravens to sign quality replacement players. The Orioles, with a few notable exceptions, don't seem able to do that. They either can't evaluate talent, or they evaluate talent well but can't develop it in the minors. And so I am left wondering where they will get players to replace the departed. They can't grow them. They can't or won't sign them. Sigh. Maybe I just expect too much, hoping they'll contend for the post season each year. Maybe that's not possible when the Yankees and the Red Sox can spend over $300MM on talent every year between them. Maybe it's too much to hope that Baltimore could have too high quality teams at the same time.

[rentedmule]

Dec 14, 2013 16:24:48 GMT -5 Evil Yoda said:

I assumed that the end of the steroid era would mean the end of ten year contracts. And then the Mariners signed Cano for stupid money. They will regret that deal, I believe. Like the Yankees do the ARod deal. Let me be clear: I am not saying that Cano uses steroid. I am saying that steroids are why ten year contracts made sense for superstars; they could keep themselves going well into their thirties that way. Cano won't be able to do that even if he wants to. Well, not without getting suspended.

I guess there will always be a few teams stupidly committed to winning: they want to win so bad they'll make dumb deals. I don't want the Orioles to be like those teams. I don't mind them letting Johnson and Feldman and McLouth go to teams willing to overpay them. The Ravens let players go to teams that way every year. But... I feel I can count on Ozzie and the Ravens to sign quality replacement players. The Orioles, with a few notable exceptions, don't seem able to do that. They either can't evaluate talent, or they evaluate talent well but can't develop it in the minors. And so I am left wondering where they will get players to replace the departed. They can't grow them. They can't or won't sign them. Sigh. Maybe I just expect too much, hoping they'll contend for the post season each year. Maybe that's not possible when the Yankees and the Red Sox can spend over $300MM on talent every year between them. Maybe it's too much to hope that Baltimore could have too high quality teams at the same time.

Some good thoughts there Yoda. The "game" is a bit different these days than what I grew up with!

I sorta follow those organizations with some pretty good business models. Tampa and of course Oakland do their best to cope with low fan support and small budgets. For some years Montreal survived in a downright hostile enviroment, yet produced consistantly produced a lot of very good baseball players. St. Louis and Atlanta travel the middle road with a long history of producing good baseball without competing financially at the highest levels. It's about the game! I find Oakland and Tampa fun to watch.

[Moses]

The Orioles had a player in Chris Davis that hit over 50 home runs and over 120 RBIs, and they didn't win the pennant. It's all about pitching.